When Is The Best Time to Buy in Toronto

We all know that our Toronto housing market is cyclical and like anything timing your purchase will impact the price you pay.  In the spring homeowners put their properties up for sale followed by  a swell of buyers which drives housing prices skyward. Where in the cold months of winter sellers wait and wait for even a single shadow of a buyer.

The graph below illustrates the month to month average selling price over a 5 year period.  What you can see are during the spring and fall months housing prices are higher as a large pool of  buyers all compete to secure a deal, therefore driving up housing prices.  However during the summer and late fall and early winter months we see a softening of prices as buyers take a collective break house hunting.

I think it is important to explain why the yellow line (2009) does not reflect the same trends as the following years.  In the last quarter of 2008 we saw Toronto’s Stock Exchange  S & P market drop 6,000 points or 35% of its value.  Our housing market was not immune to this economic slow down.  During this time housing prices took a 10% drop in value.  Buyers were very hesitant to buy and sellers wanting to secure a deal we forced to drop their selling price for any hope of closing a deal.  But as we rolled through 2009, by the end of the year our housing market had regained all of the losses from a year earlier.

What you will find going into the winter months is it opens a very short window where the market tips in favour of  buyers.  While other realtors and their buyers take a holiday break, my buyers and I are activity looking a houses on the hunt for a good deal.

It should be noted that you see that October of 2013 saw and unusual high average price.   This is due primarily to buyers looking to purchase so as to take advantage of their mortgage lender’s pre-approved rate prior to expiring – which was significantly lower than what was being offered in the fall.

October 2013 5 years monthly average priceThe other key metric to monitor, along with average monthly price, is the monthly average days on market.  Again very cyclical, where November, December and January look as the best opportunity to buy.  Homes that are over priced or have become stale offer a savvy buyer to submit offers where in the spring market would never be considered.

With 2009 buyers continued to be hesitant to buy so sellers found their homes took longer to sell.  But you can see that by August the monthly trend had gone back to what would be a normal housing market.

October 2013 5 years Monthly days on market

These statistics only represent  Toronto and not those of the entire Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB).  The way I see i,t I want an accurate representation of Toronto statistics and using TREB’s  they will include Durham, Mississauga, Brampton and Markham numbers which would not provide a true analysis of where I work.

I am always available and if you are looking for a specific statistic regarding a neighbourhood you can always contact me.

 

Michael